One of Trump’s first acts as U.S. president was to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the grounds that it was undermining the U.S. economy. Despite the Philippines never being able to enter the TPP due to constitutional restrictions, Philippine leaders cautiously observed Asia’s economic landscape following Trump’s historic withdrawal. In the end, the remaining eleven members of the TPP resumed the agreement without U.S. participation, perhaps a sign of waning U.S. power in our region. As Filipinos, it is logical to ask ourselves whether it is time to move on from our alliance with the United States, our former colonizer, in the wake of China’s growth. Chinese investments could improve Filipino infrastructure, and China will soon surpass the U.S. as the world’s #1 economy.
Because BRI conveniently fits the mold for the Philippines’ Build, Build, Build program, Chinese infrastructure prospects seem tempting in the short term. Nevertheless, the illiberal values that China upholds under the guise of the BRI will eventually harm the Philippines. China’s behavior during the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration provided indicators for what a potential China-led world order would comprise: might makes right, and privileges rather than rights. Before deciding whether to welcome Chinese investments with open arms, the Philippines should draw lessons from our neighbors in the Pacific who already experienced the BRI investments first-hand. Sri Lanka already regrets its participation in the new Silk Road, and Malaysia seems to be following the same path of remorse.
Despite the 2016’s Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China’s claims in Philippines waters, China rejects the jurisdiction of the court. Since the ruling, Chinese fisherman continue to destroy coral reefs in Scarborough Shoal while gradually squeezing Filipino fisherman out of the market. China’s actions suggest that the rules of the American-led international order no longer apply in the South China Sea, and this means the free flow of commerce is at risk. Without American support, the Philippines will be dictated by Chinese coercion tactics and predatory trade and business practices. Hegemons are the natural rule setters for international orders, and China’s premature bid for hegemony should motivate the Philippines and our allies to make pre-emptive efforts against China’s military, financial, and labor offensive outside of the China mainland.
China’s influx of foreign cash led Sri Lanka to hand over control of an entire port to Chinese control in 2017. High interest rates on Chinese loans left Sri Lanka owing $8 billion, whilst most of the Chinese infrastructure provides little income to Sri Lankans today. Malaysia’s farsightedness swayed them to recently renegotiate several Chinese infrastructure projects because of economic unviability. Malaysia did not want to serve as another debt-trap cautionary tale for the world. Although the Philippine economy does not resemble Sri Lanka, the Philippines should also beware of Chinese efforts to control infrastructure in strategically-located Filipino territories. Chinese corporations continue to exclude Filipino communities from projects while utilizing almost entirely Chinese labor. Like with Sri Lanka and Malaysia, profits from Philippines-based projects will remain unbalanced in favor of China.
Those more supportive of the Philippines opening to China discuss the “American first” policies of current U.S. leadership. This divergence from America’s decades-long vision of the international order make some Filipinos lose confidence in alliances, especially regarding the U.S.’s commitment to defend the Philippines’ territorial sovereignty through military force. While such concerns are valid, both the Duterte and Trump administrations are temporary phases in an ever-evolving geopolitical scene. Trump’s 2017 reconsideration of the TPP and more recent invitation of Duterte to the White House demonstrates that the U.S. still values the alliance. The Philippines should do its part to ensure a China-led world order remains an idea instead of a reality by rejecting Chinese debt traps. Fully committing to the U.S. as a transparent ally will encourage other small nations in the Pacific to do more to counterbalance China’s rise. Whereas a China-led international order is unlikely to be liberal, America’s security umbrella can enable nations in the South Pacific to attract investments peacefully for another 70 years, just as it has done since the end of World War II.
